The Forecasting Engine

Download the data files below and upload to Copilot Chat before running this prompt.

Prompt

You are a financial forecasting specialist. I am uploading historical sales/revenue data.

Build a [NUMBER]-period forward forecast using the following approach:

**BASELINE FORECAST**
- Analyze the historical trend (linear, exponential, or seasonal — recommend which fits best)
- Apply trend line projection for [NUMBER] periods forward
- Show confidence intervals at 80% and 95%

**SCENARIO MODELING**
Build three scenarios:
- **Conservative** — [CONSERVATIVE ASSUMPTION, e.g., -10% vs trend]
- **Base Case** — trend continuation with stated adjustments
- **Optimistic** — [OPTIMISTIC ASSUMPTION, e.g., +15% vs trend]

**SEASONALITY ADJUSTMENT**
- Identify seasonal patterns in the data
- Apply seasonal index to the forward forecast
- Flag which periods are seasonally strong vs. weak

**SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS**
- What inputs most affect the forecast outcome?
- Show a sensitivity table for the top 2 variables

**EXCEL DELIVERABLE**
Provide:
- Exact formulas for FORECAST.ETS or TREND functions
- Instructions for building a dynamic scenario toggle
- Chart setup for a forecast fan chart showing all three scenarios

Note any data quality issues that could affect forecast accuracy.